News & Commentary: 2009-02-12

Technology for the hopelessly uninformed

Being interested in communications and the application of technology to real world problems, this article struck me as interesting. Sadly, it just confirmed how little information our elected representitives have at hand regarding use of technology.

Also speaking to Lateline, Mr Brumby said no early warning system could have prevented the weekend's devastating bushfires.

Mr Brumby says the last two Council of Australian Governments (COAG) meetings have examined an early warning information system but the technology is not yet available.

He says he wrote to the Prime Minister last year and says Kevin Rudd was keen on a national rollout of such a system.

It seems a silly scam to get government dollars paying for annoying mechanical dialing systems that serve no useful purpose. In an emergency situation the last thing you want to do is jam everyone's phones with rubbish calls -- they probably have important calls to make!

Here's a link to the trial report, count how many times the Telstra brand pops up.

If you want to get an emergency message out to a large number of people, then use a broadcast medium like AM or FM radio. The public are already paying for the ABC so borrow a channel or two from that, it's not going to happen all that often and regular listeners will just have to deal with the fact that sometimes emergencies do happen and that's just life. It is bleedingly obvious that the best way to get one message out to many listeners is via a broadcast medium. In this particular case, there was plenty of "early warning", we had at least a week of extreme high fire danger weather which was reported on every available weather report. Everyone knew that it was fire season and they should be making preparations.

The last thing you want to be doing is trying to give people educational advice on how they should have prepared during the middle of an emergency situation. This sort of education should be done BEFORE the emergency, as a part of normal life. When the emergency hits it is too late to start a training course. The things that people need to know during the emergency are just the updates on where the trouble is at, how fast it is moving and how bad it is. Doesn't really matter if it might be a fire or a flood or some other disaster, the basic idea remains unchanged.

Once we have digital radio, we can include some additional information in the stream like GPS coordinates of recent trouble spots. With a slightly more intelligent radio receiver (i.e. one with a GPS receiver) the device could calculate the distance from itself to the danger zone and possibly also the remaining time till "impact". It wouldn't be difficult to display this in some suitable presentation format so that people can glance at it and get a quick update as to their situation. No worry about privacy, no worry about detailed record keeping, runs on batteries or mains, works in the car or at the end of the yard, etc.

The other stupid thing about calling all the phones during an emergency situation is that people have things that they need to get on with doing (cleaning gutters, hosing down everything to make it wet, mowing lawns, etc). With a radio they can leave it playing and listen to the updates without dropping what they are doing, with a phonecall they are going to think it is a relative or something important so they drop what they are doing to find it is just their taxpayer dollars being pissed away as per usual.

UPDATE 2009-09-26: Pissed away as usual

Here is the link to the report from the Royal Comission. I'll just highlight the bits regarding fuel buildup on the ground (in all cases emphasis added by me, not in original report):

Academic estimate by Dr Kevin Tolhurst

Dr Tolhurst looked at the weather, temperatures, etc and pronounced, "the conditions that we saw on 7 February were as extreme as we have ever seen them," but this was based on a working estimate of a fuel load of about 12 tonne per hectare.

Kilmore East -- 121 fatalities

The fuel loads in and around areas where the Kilmore East burned fire Mount Disappointment, Humevale, Strathewen, Kinglake Glenvale and were extremely high. Senior, highly experienced CFA volunteer officers inspected these areas 3 to 4 weeks before 7 February. They were horrified by the fuel loadings; 40 to 50 tonnes per hectare.
Please note with reference to warnings, knowledge of potential disaster was available for this area at least three weeks before the fires. The powers that be could have run a mail merge through Microsoft Office and sent out information via Australia Post and still have got the message out in good time.

Horsham -- no fatalities

The light-to-moderate fuel loads meant the fire was of moderate-to-high intensity, ...

Coleraine -- no fatalities

The countryside is undulating grazing land and fuel loads were medium to relatively heavy.

Churchill -- 11 fatalities

Fuel loads were high due to a mixture of natural and plantation fuels.

...

... from near Churchill to Mount Tassie, was burning through steep, inaccessible country that carried high fuel loads of native forest and pine and Blue Gum plantations.

Redesdale -- no fatalities

The fire burned through undulating grassland and scrub fuels and grazing country with steep gullies and washaways.

Bendigo -- 1 fatality

The existence of relatively large tracts of vacant, unused land, coupled with scrub and recreation areas, made control extremely difficult.408 While the fire was limited by an area of land in Pascoe Street, where fuel reduction had been undertaken, crowning and short distance spotting occurred elsewhere hampering firefighting efforts.

Beechworth / Mudgegonga -- 2 fatalities

... the south-easterly spread of the fire into steep, inaccessible areas with heavy fuel loads led to some extreme fire behaviour.

...

Areas where fuel had been reduced through burning had a significant effect on the spread and eventual control of this fire.
Clearly there is a strong link between fuel load, fire intensity and number of fatalities. Backburning should be our primary fire protection strategy.

Royal Commission Recommendations

A very large part of the Royal Commission report was devoted to discussion of communications and as a consequence, Telstra has been awarded millions more dollars of taxpayer money to produce a system that floods people's phones with recorded messages (both landlines and mobiles) and also pushes out SMS into mobiles as well. Stupidly, the first generation of system will be using the billing address of the mobile phone as the selection mechanism to decide which messages to send to which phones (not very useful for tourists, I guess at least homeowners get to know when their house is about to go under). With all the phone systems nicely jammed, Telstra will happily demand more money for infrastructure and probably pick up good money on the knock-on phonecall charges as people ring around trying to find out that the cryptic SMS was talking about, but can't get through to the people they are ringing because the robot recorded messages are flooding the exchanges so they have to try multiple times, leaving voicemail (even more profits for telcos).

No doubt there will be a second generation where even more millions of dollars are required to deliver messages to people's mobiles that are relevant to the people themselves (i.e. based on the location of the mobile). No doubt this design makes a lot of sense to government employees who do indeed need someone to send them a memo to tell them when this arse is on fire.

Essentially zero of the Royal Commision conclusions discussed how to manage fuel reduction and backburning. This does seem to be a taboo topic amongst all the National sParks and Wildfires people , and the coffee shop Greens sitting safe in their inner city suburbs are quite happy to leave it at that.

Sadly, when the country people were left to organise themselves, using good old-fashioned radios, the whole system worked a lot better.

Fun With Google -- Opinion Roundup

You can get lots of brazen opinions on the web (I guess in another decade the censorship police will have scrubbed it all clean), I'll enjoy it while it lasts:

southerncross.4wdnsw.org

Mark Douglas led the convoy out of Lithgow and for a moment I was a bit worried as he had no idea where we were going, but my fears were laid to rest. You see it was a reccee so we could get lost anyway, but more importantly he didn't have his GPS so we probably wouldn't miss too many turns.

After overtaking we drove through some virgin tracks. With many thanks to National Sparks and Wildfires Services of course they all led to locked gates. Oh well that's the point of a reccee. Heading back out and up the highway we took the main road in.

COMMENT: The issue of locked gates being a hazard by both limiting CFS access and reducing escape routes for people trapped in these areas is something of a concern. Mobility is the most valuable thing in a disaster situation.

www.diveoz.com.au

It got me thinking it would be nice if National Sparks and Wildfires, educated the park users on appropriate ways to dispose of their refuse, instead of tooling up and down the road all weekend burning diesel in their Land Cruiser, they could even print recommendations on the back of the seven dollar entry ticket.

www.2gb.com.au

The real terrorists here are the national sparks and wildfires and the watermelon greens. If these fools burnt off in these parks regularly the fires would not be as bad as this. THIS WAS A DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN. Dont believe me just ask any farmer. NOW THANKS TO THESE SHINEY BUMS ALL OF THE ANIMALS THERE ARE NOW DEAD.If you burn off regularly the animals can escape small fires. EVERYONE WAKE UP MAKE THESE FOOLS BURN OFF ALL OFF THE TIME AND MAKE THIS THE LAST BUSHFIRE DISASTER.

www.safirefighter.com

Not really. Its a pretty common theme for NPWS. I've had colleagues on the top of a hill when NPWS have decided to light up the bottom of the hill for no apparent reason.

They are not nicknamed "National Sparks and Wildfires" for no reason.

Try NPWS lighting a backburn when your appliance is in the middle of the scrub chasing a flank, and all your plastic on the appliance melts as a result with the crews screaming CHECK CHECK CHECK on the radio as the fire goes over the top. I have a picture somewhere of the end result :-o

COMMENT: Part of the problem with backburning is taking responsibilty and being 100% sure it is done in a competent and controlled manner. A perfectly predictable but "accidental" fire in the middle of summer becomes no one's responsibility.

forums.whirlpool.net.au

Regarding recreational small hovercraft...

Running along a beach or a hard surface is fun. I've always wanted to run it on the snow up at perisher valley, but I have fat chance with the National Sparks and Wildfires environmental nazis.

COMMENT: Admittedly the "nazi" word gets used far too loosly these days. It is easy to see that environmentalists are getting themselves a reputation as people who seek to destroy other people's fun and lifestyle. The greens have become neo-puritans in their own way, each trying to outdo the other in living a more pure and impact-chaste life. This will only get worse as carbon tax starts to bite.

www.jennifermarohasy.com

So where does this claim come from? "If the world could halve the rate of global deforestation we could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by three billion tonnes a year"

For this to be true we would need 6Gt in annual LUC emissions. But from only 1.33Gt at present?

They must have factored in the emissions from a continuation of the broadscale clearfiring by the boys and girls at National Sparks and Wildfires.

COMMENT: Clearly there's a big difference in attitude between green groups believing that too much backburning goes on, and just about everyone else who believes that too little goes on. However, for the purpose of calculating CO2 emission, ALL dead wood will either burn (sooner or later) or rot, releasing exactly the same CO2 under all circumstances. Where else can the carbon go?

www2b.abc.net.au

First I am a country dweller, second I am a conservationist, third I have fought bushfires when they are near us and fourth my cousins lost houses, property and stock in Victoria's fires. My cousin has a well published photo with Kevin Rudd to prove it.

So all of your basic assumptions are wrong in my case buddy. I am sick and tired of stupid, ignorant people simply blaming 'greenies' for things they have no hand in. Why not blame government departments who are terrified of fires getting out of control when they light it. They aren't called National Sparks and Wildfires (National Parks and Wildlife) for nothing. That is one of the major factors in Canberra's fires a few years ago. Second, people who build houses in that region need their head read. These forests burn every few years, they know that, and they take the risk. Why they don't have adequate fire shelters is beyond me. My cousin accepts that but says governments approved their housing so should have installed a better disaster management plan. This is also the case for building on flood plains. Thirdly, many conservationists (there are different shades of green mind you) believe that animals are penned in by roads and fences and so cannot escape a fire. Many of those who got through are now counted as road kill. Forests need animals. Once a major fire goes through specific types of forests (such as open sclerophyll), most trees and shrubs will have mechanisms to regenerate. Many of these require animals to assist in the process. This is seriously curtailed without movement of animals back into the forest (roads, cliffs and fences for the memory poor).

COMMENT: Looks like this person is in favour of backburning but doesn't believe that green groups are standing in the way of the backburning, only government incompetence. I'd argue that certainly some greens are trying to block backburning (as per the comment on CO2 emissions above) but government incompetence is also part of the problem. A lose/lose situation really.

www.theherald.com.au

The National Sparks And Wildfires couldnt run a choko vine over an outhouse, they are a joke.

www.exploroz.com

Until 20mths ago we were living in Portland and we used to go camping out there all the time. Funny how the place changes for the worse after national sparks and wildfires take over. More weeds, traffic, rubbish etc and not as many animals around now, I guess too many vehicles.

UPDATE 2008-11-28

A quote about causes of bushfires.

http://www.henrythornton.com/

The facts, though, are beyond dispute. In council chambers, green ideologues have prohibited or stymied preventive burning and fined those who dared to clear the land around their homes. In universities, theorists insisted that their research had scuttled all the popular notions that Aborigines once put much of the countryside to the torch. In government departments, a shameful institutional incompetence prevailed. Emergency calls went unanswered, general alerts rather than specific warnings were offered, bureaucratic rivalries and petty jealousies abounded -- all adding fuel to Black Saturday's pyres. And the thing is, there was no excuse, especially that of ignorance.

It wasn't as if the bush's propensity to explode was an unknown. Almost since John Batman arrived in Port Phillip in 1835, the forests and grasslands have been going up in smoke. At Melbourne Library, you can examine artist William's lurid depiction of the Black Thursday fires that consumed almost the entire state in 1851, just 16 years after the first humpies went up on what would become the site of modern Melbourne. His painting is a work of kitschy horror, a broad canvas of people and every conceivable animal, native and domestic, all fleeing in white-eyed terror from the flames. If Strutt had included the odd devil and a few infernal imps, it could be taken as a homage to the works of Dutch artist Hieronymus Bosch, because what he painted is a guide to hell itself.

This is from the book, "Inferno; The Day Victoria Burned" by Roger Franklin, although the title really should be "Inferno; The Day Victoria Burned (Again)" . Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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